A theory is meant to explain why something happens or how different things are related. It therefore represents the "how" and "why" of an observable phenomenon. To come up with a theory, you have to follow the scientific method: first, make measurable predictions about why or how something works; then conduct a controlled experiment to test them; finally, establish whether the results of the experiment objectively confirm the hypotheses.
Steps
Part 1 of 3: Conceiving a Theory
Step 1. Ask yourself "why?
"Look for connections between seemingly unrelated phenomena. Explore the root causes of everyday events and try to predict what will happen next. If you already have an outline of a theory in mind, look at the subject matter of that idea and try to collect as much information as possible Write down the "how", the "why" and the links between phenomena.
If you don't have a theory or hypothesis in mind yet, you can start by relating things. If you look at the world with curiosity, you may suddenly be struck by an idea
Step 2. Develop a theory to explain a law
A scientific law is, in general, the description of an observable phenomenon. It does not explain why that phenomenon exists or what causes it. The explanation of the phenomenon is what is called a scientific theory. It is a common misconception that theories turn into laws as a result of a sufficient amount of research.
For example: Newton's law of universal gravitation was the first to mathematically describe how two different bodies in the universe interact with each other. However, Newton's law does not explain why gravity exists or how it works. It wasn't until three centuries after Newton, when Albert Einstein developed the theory of relativity, that scientists began to understand how and why gravity works
Step 3. Research previous studies
Find out what has already been tested, verified, and disproved. Find out everything you can about your chosen topic and check if anyone has already asked themselves the same questions. Learn from the past so you don't repeat the same mistakes.
- Use the information available on the subject to understand it better. These include existing equations, observations and theories. If you intend to deal with a new phenomenon, try to base yourself on previous theories that are related to the topic and that have already been demonstrated.
- Find out if anyone has already developed the same theory. Before we go any further, try to be reasonably sure that no one else has explored the same topic. If you don't find anything, feel free to develop your idea; if someone has already developed a similar theory, read their research and determine if you can work on it.
Step 4. Formulate a hypothesis
A hypothesis is a reasoned conjecture that aims to explain a series of natural facts or phenomena. Propose a possible reality that is logically deducible from your observations: identify repeated patterns and reflect on what could be causing those phenomena. Use the "if … then" structure: "If [X] is true, then [Y] is also true"; or: "If [X] is true, then [Y] is false". Formal assumptions include an "independent" and a "dependent" variable: the independent variable is a possible cause that can be modified and controlled, while the dependent variable is a phenomenon that you can observe or measure.
- If you intend to use the scientific method to develop your theory, then your hypotheses must be measurable. You can't prove a theory without having some numbers to back it up.
- Try to formulate several hypotheses that can explain what you observe. Compare them to each other and note where they match and where they diverge.
- Examples of hypotheses are: "If melanoma is related to ultraviolet rays, then it will be more common among people who are more exposed to UV"; or: "If the change in color of the leaves is related to temperature, then exposing the plants to low temperatures will cause a change in the color of the leaves."
Step 5. Keep in mind that all theories start with a hypothesis
Be careful not to confuse the two: a theory is a verified explanation of the reason why a certain pattern exists, while a hypothesis is only a prediction of that reason; a theory is always supported by evidence, while a hypothesis is only the supposition - which may or may not be valid - of a possible outcome.
Part 2 of 3: Testing the Assumptions
Step 1. Design an experiment
According to the scientific method, the theory must be verified by an experiment; then find a way to test the validity of each hypothesis. Make sure you conduct the experiment in a controlled environment: try to isolate the event and the cause (the dependent and independent variables) from anything that could contaminate the results. Be specific and pay attention to external factors.
- Make sure your experiments are reproducible. In most cases, it is not enough to prove a hypothesis just once. Others should be able to recreate your experiment on their own and get the same results.
- Ask colleagues or tutors to check your experiment procedures, inspect your work and verify that your reasoning holds up. If you are working with peers, make sure each of them makes their own contribution.
Step 2. Seek help
In some fields of study it can be difficult to conduct complex experiments without having certain tools and resources available. Scientific equipment can be expensive and difficult to procure. If you are enrolled in college, talk to any professor or researcher who can help you.
If you are not attending university, you can try to contact professors or graduates from a nearby university. For example, contact the physics department if you want to develop a theory on that subject. If you know of a university that is doing some interesting research in your field, consider contacting them by email, even if they are very far away
Step 3. Document everything rigorously
Again, the experiments must be reproducible - other people must be able to conduct the experiment the same way you did and get the same results. Therefore, keep an accurate record of everything you do during the experiment and keep all the data.
In universities there are archives that store the data collected in the course of scientific research. If other scientists need to inquire about your experiment, they can consult these archives or ask for the data directly from you. Make sure you can provide all the details
Step 4. Evaluate the results
Compare your predictions with each other and with the results of your experiment. Ask yourself if the results suggest anything new and if there is something you have forgotten. Whether or not the data corroborates the assumptions, look for hidden or "exogenous" variables that may have influenced the results.
Step 5. Try to achieve certainty
If the results do not support your assumptions, they will be considered wrong. If, on the other hand, you are able to prove them, then the theory is a step closer to being confirmed. Always document your results in as much detail as possible. If the experiment is not reproducible, it will be much less useful.
- Make sure that the results do not change when you repeat the experiment. Repeat this until you are sure.
- Many theories are abandoned after being refuted by experiments. However, if your theory sheds light on something that previous theories are unable to explain, it could be a major breakthrough in science.
Part 3 of 3: Confirming and Expanding a Theory
Step 1. Draw conclusions
Determine if your theory is valid and make sure the experiment results are repeatable. If you confirm the theory, it shouldn't be possible to disprove it with the tools and information at your disposal. However, don't try to present it as an absolute fact.
Step 2. Disclose the results
You will likely accumulate a lot of information during the process of proving your theory. Once you are satisfied that the results are repeatable and that your conclusions are valid, try to present your research in a form that others can understand and study. Explain the procedure in logical order: first, write an abstract that summarizes the theory; then describe the hypotheses, the procedures of the experiment and the results obtained, outlining the theory in a series of points or arguments; finally, end the report with an explanation of the conclusions you have drawn.
- Explain how you came to define the question, what approach you took and how you conducted the experiment. A good report must be able to guide the reader through every thought and every relevant action that led you to those conclusions.
- Consider who you are targeting. If you want to share the theory with people who work in the same field as you, write a scientific article and submit it to an academic journal; if you want to make your findings accessible to the general public, try presenting them in a lighter form, such as a book, unscientific article, or video.
Step 3. Understand the peer review process
Within the scientific community, theories are generally not considered valid until they are evaluated by other members. If you submit your findings to an academic journal, another scientist may decide to revise (that is, test, check, and replicate) the theory and process you have presented. This could confirm the theory of leaving her in limbo. If it survives the test of time, others may seek to further develop your idea by applying it to different fields.
Step 4. Keep working on the theory
Your reflections do not necessarily have to end after you disclose the results. The very act of putting your idea on paper, on the contrary, could lead you to consider factors that until that moment you have ignored. Don't be afraid to keep testing and re-examining the theory until you are completely satisfied. This can lead to further research, experiments and articles. If your theory is broad enough, you may never be able to develop all the implications.
