Nobody can predict the future, nevertheless everyone must make predictions in order to make their own choices and be ready for the events of life. Our predictions are not based on a vision of the future, but on our knowledge and our past experiences, to which we try to add some insight. If you don't want to be caught off guard by the future and want life's challenges to find you ready to face them, you need to learn to master the art of being forward-thinking.
Steps
Step 1. Determine what you intend to plan or what you want to prepare for
The future is a large place full of eventualities, but what you probably want is to dedicate yourself to a specific situation, problem or opportunity. By defining them you will improve your skills.
Step 2. Use your intuition
Not all decisions are rational or carefully analyzed, and intuitive assumptions can often be quite powerful. What do you feel is right to do? What do you think will happen? When you use your intuition, you draw on your experiences and knowledge in a way that differs from when you do rational analysis.
- Listen to your first instinct. Intuition often works best before you have time to study every detail, so pay attention to it, even if you decide not to follow it right away.
- Intuition can alert you to otherwise elusive emotional factors and suffocated clues. If you feel that something is wrong with a situation or that you simply don't like someone, don't ignore it, even if you can't identify the reasons.
- Use intuition as a "guide" rather than a solution. Investigate what might be causing that gut feeling and dig into it until you can find out.
Step 3. Evaluate what you already know about
Our knowledge comes from many directions. Have you ever tried something like this before? Do you know how the person is likely to react? Have you read or witnessed experiences related to similar situations experienced by others? Can you ask any questions about it? Can you give it a try or collect data to help you understand what might happen?
Step 4. Be aware of your prejudices
People tend to influence their predictions and actions in predictable ways. For example, in influencing people's decisions, recent events tend to play a larger role than they deserve. Also, sometimes we are led to believe that something is true just because everyone around us does the same. If you think this is what is happening, start looking for more obvious evidence (such as facts and numbers) and question your beliefs. Research your cognitive bias and find out if you are a victim of some of the more common guesses.
Step 5. Make up hypothetical situations related to your goal
Ask yourself "what if" by referring to different possibilities and imagine the possible outcomes and the possible course of events that could ensue. Specifically, think about the possible consequences of different courses of action.
Step 6. Consider the worst possible scenario
What would be the worst that could happen? Evaluate the possible risks.
- Is the worst case scenario something you and others could tolerate? Could you undo the damage done, try again, apologize, afford to lose some money or face criticism or rejection?
- Is the worst case scenario something you can plan to avoid or mitigate?
- Is the worst case scenario really too risky or undesirable?
- What is the likelihood of the worst case scenario coming true? And that the result is undesirable?
Step 7. Consider the best possible scenario
What would be the best thing that could happen? Evaluate the possible rewards.
- What can you do to make the result lean towards the best possible scenario?
- What goals should you set?
- What is the likelihood of the best scenario coming true? And that the result is desirable?
Step 8. Think about possible actions
If you are trying to make predictions, you probably want to decide how to react to a situation or need, so think about possible responses.
Step 9. Evaluate those actions
Based on your experiences and knowledge regarding the unfolding of events, choose or limit the actions to be taken.
Step 10. Get ready
Whatever you need to be ready for: people, skills, structures, plans, or just a test of courage, be prepared.
Writing can be a very powerful preparatory tool. It helps you memorize your action plans and see them from a comprehensive perspective. Use an agenda, a chart, a block, a list, whatever you find useful
Step 11. Try it
Act in accordance with your predictions and plans. Then let life take its course. See what happens. By taking note of the result, you will gain more experience and knowledge, which you can draw on the next time you have to make a similar decision.
Step 12. Change
When you see what is actually happening, change your actions or reactions as best you can. After taking the first step you may not have the ability to change the course of things, but you will still have the benefit of gaining new information. Use them to decide how to change your behavior, both in the present and in the future.
Advice
- The worst and best possible scenarios help you establish a range of possible probabilities and make subsequent plans and decisions.
- Inactivity is a possible response to many situations, but evaluate its merits and risks. There can be benefits (in the future you may have more information or someone's involvement could damage their reputation), but also risks (deadlines or missed opportunities). A smart approach would be to wait a little while, perhaps just long enough to find out more.
- The world of work requires people who can make good predictions, if you can hone your skills, consider getting paid for them.
- Practice. Even when you are not the one who has to plan or make predictions, make your predictions and notice what happens. This process will help you hone your skills.
- Be honest with yourself. No wishful thinking will be able to stop the next natural disaster, but the realistic admission that something might happen could lead you to be properly prepared.
- Collect ideas with those around you. Being forward-looking should be a collective task, to benefit from the insights and ideas of all who are consulted. Ideas are also often able to nourish others.
- Statistics and probabilities are mathematical methods of analyzing history. Use them if you need numerical data relating to the likelihood of a given result occurring.
Warnings
- Remember that too much analysis leads to paralysis. Often the best thing to do is to act on our best predictions and see what happens.
- Treat your predictions and plans for what they are. Nobody is able to foresee every eventuality.
