There is no verified method for predicting an earthquake. Geologists are busy developing an early warning system, but there is still a lot to learn about what happens just before this catastrophic event. The fact that earthquakes don't always follow a constant pattern is part of the problem - some signs show up at different times (days, weeks, or seconds before the tremors), while other clues don't appear at all. Read on to learn about the possible warning signs of an earthquake and to learn how to prepare for one.
Steps
Part 1 of 3: Paying Attention to Possible Clues
Step 1. Pay attention to the phenomenon that is identified as "telluric light"
Some people have noticed strange lights on the ground or floating in the air in the days or in the first few seconds before an earthquake. Although the causes are not yet fully understood, it is believed that telluric lights could be emitted by rocks that are subjected to extreme pressure.
- This phenomenon was not reported before each earthquake, nor did it occur on a regular basis; however, if you have heard of strange lights or someone talks about the presence of UFOs in your area of residence, you should review your earthquake preparedness plan and make sure the survival kit is on hand.
- Telluric lights have been observed as short blue flames that emerge from the ground, as luminous spheres floating in the air or as large bifurcations of light that resemble lightning strikes from the ground.
Step 2. Pay attention to changes in animal behavior
There are studies that report animals (from toads to bees, from birds to bears) leaving their den or habitat just before an earthquake. The exact reason why animals are able to "predict" an impending catastrophe is unknown; a plausible explanation could be the perception of small tremors that the human being cannot feel or of alterations in the magnetic field; however, if you find your pet behaving strangely, you should be alert, as it means something is about to happen.
- Hens stop laying eggs before an earthquake. If you realize that chickens no longer lay eggs for no apparent reason, make sure you and your family know what to do in the event of an earthquake.
- Catfish respond violently to changes in magnetic fields that can occur before a shock. If you are fishing and you see several catfish suddenly wiggling in the water, it is possible that an earthquake is on the way. Look around your surroundings to find a safe spot away from trees and bridges that might collapse on you.
- Dogs, cats and other animals perceive an earthquake a few seconds earlier than humans. If your four-legged friend is acting nervous and bizarre, seems terrified for no reason and runs into hiding, or your usually quiet dog starts biting and barking, you should seek shelter immediately.
Step 3. Watch out for possible premonitory shocks (small earthquakes leading to the "main" event)
Although they are not always present and it is practically impossible to determine "which" is the main shock, except after the catastrophic event, earthquakes have a tendency to manifest themselves in groups. If you feel one or more small tremors, there may be another, more violent, on the way.
Since it is impossible to predict the duration and magnitude of the earthquake, when you begin to feel the ground shaking, act correctly to protect yourself from objects that can collapse, depending on where you are (indoors, outdoors, by car and so on)
Part 2 of 3: Finding a Reliable Source of Information
Step 1. Find out about the seismic cycle of each fault in your region
Although there is no way to pinpoint the arrival of an earthquake, scientists can examine sediment samples to get an idea of when the most important earthquakes of the past occurred. By measuring the time interval between one catastrophe and another, seismologists can roughly predict when the next one might occur.
- Seismic cycles can span hundreds of years - major earthquakes could happen every 600 years (or more or less frequently) along a fault - but there is no real way to know when the next major earthquake will occur.
- If the closest fault is estimated to be in a phase of its seismic cycle where there are still more than 250 years before the next major earth event, this fact should comfort you a little. However, do not forget that in geology there are no strict rules to predict the arrival of an earthquake; you should therefore always have an emergency kit ready, in case of need.
Step 2. Sign up for the earthquake alert system based on smartphone networks
At present, Japan is the only country where such a system is in operation (other nations are working to develop their own). However, even these instruments are only capable of providing ten seconds of earthquake warning. However, there are services that send text messages to warn you of disastrous events in your area, including earthquakes.
- These messages provide instructions in an emergency, including routes to evacuate the area and available shelters.
- Your city may be equipped with warning systems, such as sirens followed by an alarm or instructions. Check that your municipality is equipped with these systems.
Step 3. Consult the sites that monitor seismic activity
Not sure if the tremor you felt was caused by a large truck, from the nearby construction site, or is it just a weird feeling? You can find out by logging into an earthquake monitoring site that shows you where and when earthquakes have occurred and their magnitude.
Part 3 of 3: Be Prepared
Step 1. Organize a home and car survival kit
In the event of an earthquake, you may not have access to electricity, cell phone networks, clean water, food, and medicines. By putting all of these items in a survival kit, you ensure that the family has everything they need to meet their primary needs during an emergency.
- You should keep some supplies in the house for two weeks of autonomy. This means having at least 4 liters of water a day for each person, non-perishable foods (and a can opener, if these are canned), enough medicines for each day, bottles and diapers for babies and personal hygiene products.
- Car survival kits should contain maps, cables to start the car in case the battery is too low, enough water for at least three days (4 liters each), non-perishable food, blankets and torches.
- Don't forget the pets! Make sure you have water, food, bowls, medicines, leash and collar or a pet carrier for your furry friends.
- You can find a complete list of the essential items for a survival kit on the different websites dealing with this topic.
Step 2. Secure heavy, large or tall furniture to the wall with bolts
One of the greatest dangers during an earthquake is the instability of buildings and objects inside, which can fall on people. By anchoring any heavy furniture to the walls, you make your home safer in the event of an earthquake.
- Bookcases, cupboards, wardrobes, dressers and display cabinets are all furniture that should be fixed to the walls.
- Mirrors and flat TVs should be well anchored to the walls, to prevent them from falling and breaking into a thousand pieces; do not hang them over sofas or beds.
Step 3. Take cover during an earthquake
Contrary to what many believe, a door arch is not the safest place to shelter during an earthquake. You should get on your knees on the ground, so that the telluric movements do not make you fall, cover your head and neck with your arms or, if possible, crawl under a table or a sturdy desk. You should also hold onto one of the table legs so you can move with him in case the jolts move him.
- You may only have a few seconds to act, doing simulations so you can learn to react faster.
- If there is no shelter, try to get into a corner of the room and curl up on the ground.
- If you are outside, try to reach an open area away from buildings, electrical cables and other items that could fall on you; get on the ground, cover your head with your arms and hold the position. If you are in the city, it may be safer to enter a building and find shelter.
- In case you are in a vehicle, try to get away from bridges or overpasses. Stay in the car and try to stop as soon as possible, avoiding parking near buildings, trees or high voltage cables, which could fall on the car.
Step 4. Check that your family has a plan for communicating
Agree on where to meet in an emergency. Memorize important phone numbers (the parents' office and cell phone numbers).
