Learning how to calculate the odds of hitting a good hand is of paramount importance to becoming a good poker player. The calculation of percentages is influenced by a large number of variables but can be done using a little bit of math. By learning to calculate the odds of drawing a useful card you can, in the long run, increase your profit margins during the game. If you want to learn about poker percentages, follow these guidelines.
Steps
Step 1. Learn the percentages for your favorite version of poker
Determining the odds of winning largely depends on the type of game you are playing. For example, the formula to use to get a certain hand in a 7-card teresina game will be different from that to use in Texas Hold'em, probably the most famous poker variant in the world.
Step 2. Consider all the determining variables before calculating the hand odds
Odds are about whether the turn and / or river will improve your hand.
- Do your math after the flop. In Texas Hold'em two cards are dealt face down to each player, then the dealer reveals 3 cards, called the flop, which each player can use to build the best possible hand.
- Make your calculations based solely on the information you have. Resist the urge to make projections based on the cards your opponents may be holding. To determine your odds of winning, just consider the cards in your hand and the flop.
Step 3. Determine the number of outs available to you
Outs are the cards that directly contribute to building the hand you have in mind. In certain situations, you can only have two outs, which means that building a certain hand becomes quite complicated. Under ideal conditions, 1 in 15 different outs can complete a winning hand. To calculate your outs, carefully consider your hand after the flop and then decide which draw you want to make. Eg:
- Nothing in your hand: If you are holding two cards of different suits and less than at least 1 of the cards on the flop, you have 6 outs to get a pair. For example, you have drawn a 5 and a 9; Any 5 or 9 in the deck would give you at least one pair, so you will have 6 outs on the turn and river.
- Served pair: If you are holding a low pair (which means that at least one card on the flop is higher and can give another player a higher pair than yours), you have 2 outs to get three of a kind or better.
- 2 overcards: if you have 2 cards in your hand, let's place an ace and a queen, higher than any card on the flop, you have 6 outs: the remaining 3 aces and the remaining 3 queens.
- Flush Draw: This is possible when you have two cards of the same suit in your hand and the flop includes two cards of the same suit. With 4 suited cards in hand and 13 suited cards, you have 9 outs to make a flush.
- Straight and two-sided straight draw: let's say you have the jack and the ten of diamonds in your hand and the flop consists of a 9 of spades, an 8 and a 4 of diamonds. In that case you would be in an advantageous position of 15 outs, with any card of diamonds (9 outs to get the straight) or any queen or 7 (6 outs for the two-sided straight).
Step 4. Calculate the percentage of the time it takes to influence your hand with a single card
- To determine the odds of the river being the card that completes your hand, subtract the outs from the number of cards remaining. Just consider the cards you have on hand to determine the outcome. So, for the river, there are 46 cards remaining: 52 - 6 (2 cards in hand, 3 flop and 1 turn).
- Divide the result by the number of cards remaining to find the success rate of your project.
Step 5. Find the percentage from the flop to the river:
in this case, the calculation is a little more difficult, because it concerns two cards that are revealed in different phases, the turn and the river.
- To find the success rate of a flush draw, subtract the number of outs from the number of cards remaining on the turn (47-9) and divide it by 47. The quotient is 0.81.
- For the river, subtract the outs (9) from the remaining cards (46) and divide the result by 46. The quotient is 0.80.
- Multiply the 2 quotients. The result is 0.65.
- Subtract 0.65 from 1 to find the success rate of the project. The result is 0.35, which means you have a 35% chance of getting flush.
Step 6. Consider the probability of hitting a draw relative to the pot
This is of paramount importance to becoming a good Texas Hold'em player. To determine whether or not it is convenient to stay in the game, the probabilities of success of a draw (hand-odds) must be compared with those relating to the pot (pot-odds). To get the hand odds follow this procedure:
- Express your success rate as an integer (for example, 24% becomes 24).
- Divide 100 by this number (the result is 4.17).
- Round the result to the nearest whole number (in our case, 4).
- Subtract 1 to find the ratio (in our case the hand odds are 3-1).
Step 7. Determine the pot odds
Pot odds represent the number of times out of 100 you will have to win the hand to break even. Professional players compare pot odds to hand odds before betting on the turn and river. When the pot odds exceed the hand odds, it is possible to bet with greater confidence.
- After the flop, there is € 50 on the dealer. The first player raises € 10.
- To stay in the game, you need to tie (call) your bet.
- In terms of pot odds, a € 10 bet on a € 50 pot equals a 5-1 ratio.
- If your hand odds are better (lower) than the pot odds, stay in the game, otherwise fold.
Advice
- To quickly calculate the success rate of a draw, multiply the number of outs by 4 if two more cards have to be revealed. Multiply by 2 when only one needs to be revealed, such as on the river.
- When calculating outs, be careful not to count too many. In some cases, some cards can contribute to the success of multiple projects. For example, after the flop you have both a straight and a straight draw; in this case the outs are 15 because the jack and the 6 of coins contribute to the realization of both projects.
- Sometimes outs are not true outs. In some cases, an out can give an opponent more advantages than you. For example, you are planning a two-sided straight and the flop consists of three cards of the same suit. You have 8 outs but the cards on the flop favor your opponent because, potentially, they allow him to make a flush. In this case your outs are reduced to 6.
